Election 2020 New Mexico Results & Discussion; the Future of the Republican Party in NM

The November 2020 Election in New Mexico will shape NM and US Government for multiple generations. Many of the races went for Career Democrats, but there is hope for Republicans in what is described as a “Red Ripple” by Joe Monahan.

After months of anticipation working on the campaign trail for Alexis Johnson for Congress, then actively working against her campaign for US House NM03, the votes were cast and the results in New Mexico have been calculated.

2019/2020 was the first time I got into Politics at this level, other than my previous experience as Student Body President. After going through the primary as Alexis Johnson for Congress campaign manager, what fascinated me the most was the lessons to be learned from the data which is provided in the election and how candidates must use that data to inform their political strategy. Elections show the reality of the politics and shows weaknesses: for candidates, for political parties, and much more. I believe in and supported Republican Candidates, for example, I wrote an op-ed which was published in October 2020 in the Pinon Post titled “Trump, Ronchetti, Herrell will Put New Mexico Families First.”

New Mexico 2020 Election Results & Reflections

President: Joe Biden 54%-Donald Trump 44%

One area where blame should be assigned is to the New Mexico GOP who should have promoted ‘Top of the Ticket’ Donald Trump with bill boards and advertisements, then also Ronchetti, and Yvette Herrell. Out of those three Yvette Herrell won her race (which will be discussed below).

Nationally, we still do not know who won between Joe Biden and Donald Trump the day after the Election Day. Legal issues, recounts, and the political posturing and fighting has already begun, and the longer and less decisive the ‘victory’, the more each side will feel that they won. I believe that Donald Trump will end up as the winner of the Electoral College after everything is decided, in a week or possibly one month.

US Senate: Ben Ray Lujan 51%-Mark Ronchetti 46%

Personally I thought that Ronchetti would win. I supported him and donated to his campaign. Mark Ronchetti had a number of advantages which he maximized due to his dedication to the campaign trail. For example, Mark’s fundraising total, including out fundraising Ben Ray Lujan in the final quarter of the race, were incredible achievements and speculation will now continue regarding Mark Ronchetti’s next ‘move’, whether to seek Mayor of Albuquerque as some have speculated. It will be interesting to watch Mark Ronchetti’s future as, behind Yvette Herrell, Mark is one of the leaders of the Republican Party in New Mexico and a front-runner for any future office.

One issue with any future run in Albuquerque is that fact that Ben Ray Lujan outpaced Mark Ronchetti in Bernalillo County 56%-40% which translates into 50,000 votes, which was essentially the Margin of Victory between Ben Ray Lujan and Mark Ronchetti.

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Bernalillo County Results for US Senate. November 2020 Election Mark Ronchetti and Ben Ray Lujan.

Ben Ray should not have been particularly strong in Bernalillo County, considering his seat in NM CD-3 contains a very small portion of Bernalillo County, and Ben Ray is more well known in the North. Whereas Mark Ronchetti lives in Albuquerque and worked in Albuquerque with a state-wide news station. These turnout numbers also highlight the fact that Republicans have a difficult time in more urban areas.

US House NM01: Deb Haaland 58%-Michelle Garcia Holmes 42%

US House NM02: Yvette Herrell 54%-Xochitl Torres Small 46%

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Joaquin Roibal and Yvette Herrell, Nov 1, 2020. Valencia County, NM.

US House NM03: Teresa Leger Fernandez 58%-Alexis Martinez Johnson 42%

In the race that I was most interested from this night, due to my own personal connection with the race, was the NM CD3 race where I had predicted a Landslide Victory for Teresa Leger Fernandez due to the fact that Alexis failed to learn from what the primaries were saying and what I told her, such as focusing almost entirely on Rio Rancho, which Sandoval County was almost an even split for her and Teresa, due to the number of Republicans, focus on Farmington / San Juan County, and focus on Catholic Wedge Issues in the heavily blue corridor of Santa Fe, Mora, San Miguel, etc where Alexis spent a significant portion of her time with very little results.

However, the result was better than I personally expected, which only shows that if she had not spent $30,000 on out of state campaign consultants, and focused on delivering a conservative messaging throughout Northern New Mexico and standing with President Donald Trump & Oil & Gas Industry, this seat was within grasp. Unfortunately, she listened to the wrong advice from a group which, once she began implementing what I had discussed (such as putting out signs, facebook sponsored posts, etc) starting earlier in September/October due to mail-in voting, rather than starting to distribute signs in the middle of October.

Alexis Johnson for Congress was a missed opportunity for a candidate to carry a consistent, traditional conservative, pro-Trump, Pro Oil & Gas messaging which would have translated into a more competitive and challenging race for Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Due to Alexis’ low campaign efforts, Teresa campaigning was able to raise money for Democrats in NM and across the United States rather than campaigning, who has now been elected to the US House and most likely will win the next 6 terms with 60% of the vote, just like Ben Ray Lujan did for the last 6 years until he moved to the US Senate.

One area that Johnson spent very little time campaigning, is Rio Rancho, which is where Alexis received the most votes in the Republican Primary, so only naturally it would have been best to spend a significant amount of time campaigning in Rio Rancho, however, Sandoval County ended up being nearly 50% split for Teresa Leger Fernandez.

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Sandoval County, Teresa Leger Fernandez vs Alexis Martinez Johnson. November 2020 Election

Teresa Leger Fernandez’s major victory came from Santa Fe County, outpacing Alexis Martinez Johnson by 53,000 votes ended up 80% for Leger Fernandez — where Alexis spent time focusing on “Swing Democrats”.

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Santa Fe County, Teresa Leger Fernandez vs Alexis Martinez Johnson. Teresa Received 59,396/75,617 votes cast in Santa Fe County.

NM State House and Senate

The Future of the Republican Party in New Mexico

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New Mexico Political News & Analysis. I am a conservative in Albuquerque, New Mexico who believes in Traditional, New Mexico Values.

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