2020 Election Predictions Part I: Donald Trump, Mark Ronchetti, Michelle Garcia Holmes
US President: Donald J. Trump
Although NM went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and consistently Dem, but 2020 is the year we see “NM Flip Red”. I believe Donald Trump has the following strengths behind him: incumbent president seeking reelection, effective campaign and fundraising efforts, and the effects of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown by New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.
The natural advantages for the incumbent in a race are incredible, and even more so for the US President, who is truly the Most Powerful Man in the World. Everything President Trump says makes the nightly news, papers, blogs, and that type of coverage would be very expensive to purchase. Also President Trump has an incredible war chest, having raised $1.1 billion dollars so far and is dedicating significant on the ground resources to New Mexico through the Trump Victory Leadership Initiative which has coordinated thousands of door-to-door and phone calls on behalf of President Trump and down ballot candidates.
Regarding Trump’s match up to Biden among New Mexico Voters, I feel confident in making the prediction now that Joe Biden has announced his VP pick to be Kamala Harris. One of the most fascinating aspects of Primary Elections is the insight into voter patterns which are often ignored by our elected officials to their detriment. Which is what I believe to be one of the biggest faults of the democrats: uncontested primary elections, for Example Ben Ray Lujan, Deb Haaland, Xochitl Torres Small all ran unopposed in the 2020 Democrat Primary Election.
Some information that can be gained from the 2020 Democratic Primaries for President, in California we saw that, according to Washington Post exit polls, only 22% of Hispanics voted for Biden, but that 49% of Hispanics vote for Bernie Sanders[1]. Therefore, New Mexico, which has the highest percentage of “Hispanic or Latino of any race” in the United States at 48%[2], has a significant number of voters who are not committed to Biden, at a time that Donald Trump has made significant steps toward acknowledging, respecting and appreciating the Hispanic Community’s contribution to the United States Culture, Economy, and Prosperity.
US Senate: Mark Ronchetti
Ben Ray Lujan should have stayed in the US House of Representatives and circled the bases for the 7th time as New Mexico’s US Rep for NM CD-3 against a no-name Republican challenger, where he had significant seniority and even was 2nd behind the most powerful person in the US House Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House. Given the fact that Ben Ray Lujan accomplished little of note during his tenure in NM House, as 2nd behind Nancy Pelosi, Ben could have used this platform to bring some real change to New Mexico. Rather than repaying the voters of NM CD-3 for their time investment in Ben Ray Lujan’s career, Ben is ‘jumping ship’ from the US House of Representatives to go to the US Senate, where he will be the low man on the totem pole due to his new
Mark Ronchetti is running a spirited campaign meeting with small groups across New Mexico. Since securing a dominant win in the 2020 Republican Primary, Ronchetti has coalesced the Republicans behind him while also appealing to moderates and Dems in New Mexico. Ben Ray Lujan has the cash, however, raising over 4 million to Ronchetti’s $600,000. Ben has the benefit of the Democrat Machine behind him, and has been running commercials since the summer, and hosting “virtual townhalls” on facebook with local leaders from different cities. Mark’s strengths are his broad appeal with voters from across New Mexico, which is particularly relevant and important in the population centers of Albuquerque and Rio Rancho, and increases the effectiveness of his dedication to the campaign trail and meeting with voters in face-to-face meetings — while practicing social distancing.
I believe Mark Ronchetti will defeat Ben Ray Lujan because Ben Ray doesn’t have the name recognition outside of NM CD-3, Ben Ray doesn’t have the ‘incumbency’ status-quo to help him get re-elected (such as when he won NM CD-3 six times), and Mark Ronchetti has much more appeal to every day New Mexicans and doesn’t have the ‘Nancy Pelosi’ politician vibe of Ben Ray Lujan which New Mexicans are quickly tiring of.
NM CD-1: Michelle Garcia Holmes
I have discussed Deb Haaland, NM CD-1 US House of Representative, on many occasions before. Deb Haaland is one of the first Native American congresswomen and has firmly entrenched herself as a far-left Democrat Politician who is dedicated to the Liberal Agenda more than the people of New Mexico. For Example, in the months leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, Deb Haaland served as campaign co-chair for Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign, and Deb spent months on the campaign trail, such as door-knocking in Iowa, rather than doing her job representing New Mexico in Washington D.C. Deb Haaland is also sympathetic to destructive riots calling them “peaceful protestors”.
In contrast, Michelle Garcia Holmes is a retired police detective and former NM Attorney General Chief of Staff. NM CD-1 is comprised of almost all of Albuquerque, which has the vast majority of the population of the district, and Torrance county, which is a large geographic and rural area. Although Albuquerque has Nob Hill, and the ‘left wing’ areas of Albuquerque — which are overrepresented at the City Level and is how we ended up with Tim Keller. From having lived in Albuquerque and graduating from Albuquerque High School, I would say that Albuquerque has a very solid conservative foundation, in vast areas across culture, ethnic, economic backgrounds from the North East Heights to the South Valley, and Michelle Garcia Holmes can definitely ride a wave of ‘anti-establishment’ voters in November 2020 to become NM CD-1 Representative.
Conclusion of Part I
In conclusion, I believe that we will see these three seats taken / held by Republicans at the federal level:
· Donald Trump, President.
· Mark Ronchetti, Senator.
· Michelle Garcia Holmes, US House NM CD-1
A part II will be forthcoming where I discuss who I believe will be the winner between Yvette Herrell and Xochitl Torres Small in NM CD-2, and Teresa Leger Fernandez and Alexis Martinez Johnson in NM CD-3.
References:
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/california-democratic-primary-live-results/
[2] https://web.archive.org/web/20100211133530/http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/35000.html
